Nathan Hochman: Can He Really Unseat San Diego's DA?

The 2024 San Diego County District Attorney race is shaping up to be a heated contest, with incumbent Summer Stephan facing a formidable challenger in Nathan Hochman. Hochman, a former federal prosecutor and prominent defense attorney, has launched a campaign centered on a message of restoring public safety and addressing what he perceives as a rise in crime under Stephan's leadership. But can he actually unseat the incumbent DA in a historically blue county?

Hochman's strategy hinges on appealing to a broad spectrum of voters, including those concerned about rising crime rates, perceived leniency in prosecutions, and the increasing homelessness crisis. He's attempting to paint a picture of San Diego County as a region grappling with escalating public safety challenges, arguing that Stephan's policies haven't adequately addressed these issues. This message resonates with many residents who feel frustrated by the current situation and are looking for a change in leadership.

Stephan, however, has a strong track record to defend. Elected in 2017, she has emphasized her commitment to victims' rights and touted her office's success in prosecuting complex cases. She’s also highlighted her focus on innovative programs aimed at diverting individuals from the criminal justice system, particularly in cases involving mental health and substance abuse. She'll likely leverage these accomplishments and her experience in office to counter Hochman's narrative.

The race also presents an interesting political dynamic. While San Diego County has traditionally leaned Democratic, recent elections have shown a willingness among voters to consider candidates from both parties. Hochman, a Republican, is attempting to capitalize on this by framing the election as a referendum on public safety rather than a partisan battle. This approach could attract moderate Democrats and independent voters concerned about crime, potentially giving him a crucial edge in a tight race.

One of the key battlegrounds will be the debate over criminal justice reform. Stephan has embraced certain reforms, including alternatives to incarceration for low-level offenders, which Hochman argues have contributed to rising crime. Hochman is advocating for a tougher approach, emphasizing the importance of holding criminals accountable and prioritizing public safety above all else. This stark contrast in philosophies will likely dominate the campaign discourse.

Another critical factor is the influence of special interest groups and political endorsements. Both candidates will be vying for the support of law enforcement organizations, community leaders, and prominent figures within the county. These endorsements can carry significant weight with voters and could play a decisive role in the outcome of the election.

Funding will also be a major factor in this race. Both candidates will need substantial financial resources to run effective campaigns, including advertising, outreach, and get-out-the-vote efforts. The ability to raise significant funds will be crucial for reaching voters and effectively communicating their messages.

Ultimately, Hochman’s chances of unseating Stephan hinge on his ability to convince voters that he represents a viable alternative and offers a more effective approach to public safety. He needs to successfully connect with residents who are dissatisfied with the status quo and believe that a change in leadership is necessary to address the county's challenges. While San Diego’s historical political leanings might favor Stephan, the public’s concern over crime and the effectiveness of current policies could provide an opening for Hochman to pull off an upset. The race is likely to be close, and the next few months will be crucial in determining whether Hochman can successfully mount a winning campaign.