Justice Hill Fantasy Outlook: Should You Draft Him in 2024?

Justice Hill enters the 2024 fantasy football season poised for a potentially significant role in the Baltimore Ravens' backfield. With J.K. Dobbins' future in Baltimore uncertain and Gus Edwards entering the final year of his contract, Hill finds himself in a prime position to capitalize on opportunity. While his past performance offers glimpses of his potential, several factors need careful consideration before deciding whether to draft him in your upcoming fantasy draft.

Hill's 2023 season offered a mixed bag of results. He flashed his explosiveness and big-play ability, particularly in the absence of Dobbins, but his overall production remained somewhat limited. He finished the season with 225 rushing yards and a respectable 4.4 yards-per-carry average, adding another 90 yards receiving. While these numbers don't scream "must-draft," they hint at the potential that could blossom if given a larger workload.

The key to Hill's fantasy relevance in 2024 lies heavily in the Ravens' backfield situation. Dobbins' contract dispute and Edwards' impending free agency create an opening for Hill to ascend the depth chart. If either or both players are not with the team, Hill could see a substantial increase in touches, making him a much more attractive fantasy prospect. However, it's crucial to monitor the Ravens' offseason moves and training camp battles closely, as the addition of a free agent or a strong showing from a rookie could impact Hill's projected workload.

Even if Dobbins returns, Hill has carved a niche for himself as a change-of-pace back and a valuable contributor in the passing game. His speed and elusiveness offer a contrasting style to Dobbins' more powerful running style. This complementary role could still translate to decent fantasy production, especially in PPR formats where receptions hold greater value. However, in standard leagues, his upside may be capped unless he sees a significant increase in rushing attempts.

Another factor to consider is the Ravens' offensive philosophy. Traditionally a run-heavy team, the Ravens have shown a willingness to adapt their offensive approach. The arrival of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken could signal a shift towards a more balanced attack, potentially impacting the overall volume of carries for the Ravens' running backs. This is a crucial element to monitor during the preseason and early regular season games.

Hill's ADP (Average Draft Position) will be a critical factor in determining his value. If his ADP climbs too high based on preseason hype, the risk-reward ratio may not be favorable. However, if he remains undervalued due to the uncertainties surrounding the Ravens' backfield, he could represent a significant value pick, especially in the later rounds of your draft.

Drafting Justice Hill in 2024 requires a calculated risk assessment. His potential upside is enticing, particularly if he secures a larger role in the Ravens' offense. However, the uncertainties surrounding the backfield competition and the team's offensive direction warrant caution. He's not a player to reach for early in your draft, but if he's available in the later rounds, he could provide significant return on investment and become a valuable asset to your fantasy roster. Closely monitoring the Ravens' offseason moves and preseason performance will be crucial to making an informed decision on whether to draft Justice Hill in 2024.

Ultimately, Hill's fantasy value hinges on opportunity. He has the talent to be a productive fantasy running back, but he needs the touches to prove it. If the opportunity arises, Justice Hill could be one of the breakout players of the 2024 fantasy football season.